Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $303,083$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(5.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{366,058.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 95.8)}}\) (asimptote \(366,058.4\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,573$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(69.1 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,609.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 88.2)}}\) (asimptote \(7,609.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,769$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $312,911$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{331,589.0}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 80.4)}}\) (asimptote \(331,589.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,133$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(451 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,076.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 87.2)}}\) (asimptote \(14,076.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $97,030$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,713,160$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,413,186.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 99.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,413,186.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $67,964$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76,552.8}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 79.6)}}\) (asimptote \(76,552.8\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $505,352$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $63,245$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(7.97 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,639.3}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 61.7)}}\) (asimptote \(59,639.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,873$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(507 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,544.8}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 62.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,544.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,301$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $42,984$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(424 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,839.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 105.6)}}\) (asimptote \(68,839.5\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,577$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(22.5 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,013.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 137.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,013.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,524$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $124,494$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{433,785.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 134.2)}}\) (asimptote \(433,785.8\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,606$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(58.8 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $68,027$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $87,030$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(575 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{408,666.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 141.4)}}\) (asimptote \(408,666.8\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,694$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(67.7 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,197.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 143.0)}}\) (asimptote \(7,197.7\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $48,834$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $665$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(0.923 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{806.6}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 104.0)}}\) (asimptote \(806.6\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(0.0759 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 81.7)}}\) (asimptote \(17.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $214$ on 2020-07-08
